Currently in the Atlantic - Oct. 31, 2022

by Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz

"Lisa" forming in Central Caribbean

The 2022 hurricane season in the Atlantic historically ends in a month. And the area most likely to see development this time of year is at it again. "Lisa" is forming in the Central Caribbean. The water is plenty warm, and that warmth extends to a significant depth. This is measured as "ocean heat content", and it's higher here than anywhere in the Atlantic Basin.

Plenty of "Heat Content" in Caribbean

The other two main factors to look at are wind shear and atmospheric moisture. The wind shear is low, which would allow for strengthening.

Low shear in area around "Lisa"

Those green colors mean the shear is very low. In contrast, look at how much of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico is red - high shear. The moisture seems high enough in the area to allow "Lisa" to develop, but there's a LOT of dry air in the western Caribbean and Central America (the yellow and orange colors on the water vapor picture below):

Dry air west of developing "Lisa"

Computer models show some intensification in the next couple of days....

Computer models vary on future intensification

While nearly all models suggest some intensification, most are in the strong tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane levels by Wednesday. A couple do suggest a potential Category 3 hurricane. So, the next day or two will have to be watched closely.

As for the future track, it's clear "Lisa" will track straight to the west into Central America-most likely the Belize area Wednesday.

Computer model agreement on westward track

The northern part of "Lisa" will impact Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, but they should not expect a direct hit. And the U.S. appears to have NO potential impact from this storm.

The main question is intensity and the eventual impact on Central America as a result....

Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz     thehurricaneschwartz@gmail.com

What you need to know, currently.

We have a new story up today by Anna Abraham on flooding in Bengaluru and the ways state mismanagement and irresponsible real estate development has heightened flood risks for the poor.

"In August and September, heavy rainfall brought the city to a standstill. Over 1500 slum-dwellers are still seeking support to rebuild their lives, while many billionaires found themselves conveniently rescued by boat, the media attention it garnered being perhaps the only pro to the situation.

The sudden increase in Bengaluru rainfall, a pattern seen in the last few years, has been attributed to global warming.  There has been a 162 percent increase in average rainfall since June this year — the city, which receives an average of 970-999 mm of rainfall a year, has broken all past records by receiving the highest annual rainfall of 1,704 mm, according to the India Meteorological Department observatory. Even more, rainfall is expected to follow, once the northeast monsoon winds arrive.

But climate change is not the sole culprit."

Click here to read the full article!