Currently in the Atlantic - Sept. 2, 2022

As soon as September begins......

Well, we finally have a named storm on the map. Where is it? In the best place possible-in the middle of nowhere. And the other two disturbances NHC is following are no threat to land.

It's no surprise that the first TS in a while has formed unusually far north in the Atlantic. I showed this map earlier in the week. THAT is where the abnormally warm water is.

Danielle forms far north-in subtropics. Here's how it does that-unusually warm water.

This is great news — for now. There's still more than half of the historical hurricane season to come. Dr. Rick Knabb, former NHC Director notes the only three years since 1995 without a hurricane up to this date in an interesting tweet:

Only 3 seasons since 1995 with no hurricanes by Sept. 1

He shows the final track maps for all three seasons. Two became active-only 2013 remained quiet. So, does that mean there is a high chance of at least an average hurricane season by the time it's over? Not necessarily.

Seasonal hurricane forecasts are (and have been for decades) dominated by the effects of ENSO (El Nino, Southern Oscillation). El Nino years (much warmer than average Tropical Pacific) help suppress activity in the Tropical Atlantic. La Nina years are the opposite. Only the 2013 season featured even a weak La Nina (many would label it in "neutral" zone). This year is featuring a rather strong La Nina. In fact, this is happening for the THIRD STRAIGHT YEAR.

Dr. Knabb didn't use any years before 1995 for comparison. Neither would I. As someone who has attempted seasonal forecasting for nearly 25 years, I concluded years ago that the climate has changed so much that it is unhelpful to compare the current years with the distant past. It hasn't worked for winter forecasts, so why would it work in the tropics?

My bottom line: no one has any idea how the rest of hurricane season will turn out. But conditions in much of the Atlantic basin remain more unfavorable for development than an average September. We'll have to keep a close watch on the Gulf of Mexico and just off the Southeast U.S. coast where conditions may become less hostile.

What you need to know, currently.

Currently fellow, Anna Abraham, has a new story up today on the record breaking heatwave sweeping across China:

"Almost half of China has been affected by its strongest heatwave since 1961, when complete meteorological observation records began, according to the China Meteorological Administration.

Afflicting northwest, central, and southeast China, the heatwave began on June 13 and broke the 2013 heatwave record of 62 days on August 15. The National Meteorological Center (NMC) of China has issued 30 high-temperature red warnings since the start of the heatwave, with 12 consecutive days of red warnings. China employs a four-tier warning system with red warnings representing the most severe event.

Over 200 national weather observatories have registered extremely high temperatures, with 45°C (115°F) recorded in southwest China’s Chongqing city last week."

What you can do, currently.

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