Nicole made landfall in the middle of the night, pretty much exactly where NHC predicted and at a 75 mph Category 1, the exact intensity, too. More on the NHC accuracy later on. Storm surge damage occurred over a wide area, from just north of West Palm Beach all the
When I started chasing hurricanes for The Weather Channel way back in 1985 (their first storm chasing), I would co-ordinate with the late, great John Hope by phone. He would tell me where to go to show the most intense part of a landfalling hurricane. I learned that if you
by Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz Nicole is intensifying. Nicole will make a direct hit on Florida's east coast. But Nicole is not Andrew. It is not Ian. It is not Sandy. Every tropical storm and hurricane is unique. But many have characteristics of prior storms. For example: 1. Like Andrew, a
As expected, Subtropical Storm Nicole formed Monday, and is predicted to both become tropical and to hit Florida this week. It's just a matter of the details. It may not look like much now, but winds and seas are already increasing significantly: @NOAA @NWS NDBC Station 41047, located 350 nm
Introducing: Project MushroomTwitter is changing we want to ensure that folks in the climate fight have a virtual safe place to share and connect. Introducing: Project Mushroom.Currently Weather Servicecurrentlyadm The weather, currently. There are two areas that may develop into tropical storms in the next couple of days. One
by Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz Lisa made landfall in Belize Wednesday and is now headed into the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico (known as the Bay of Campeche). Meanwhile, the remnants of Martin are racing northward in the far north Atlantic, getting closer to Greenland than any other land mass. Greenland?
The weather, currently. There are now two tropical storms as we start the final official month of the 2022 hurricane season: Lisa and Martin. Martin is no direct threat to land. Actually, it will get closer to Greenland and Iceland than any other countries, which is obviously unusual. That is
The weather, currently. Tropical Storm Lisa clearly has a complete circulation and has strengthened since yesterday. There are thunderstorms near the center, but it is still "out of balance." The west side of the storm is much clearer than the east. It appears to be to be due more to
by Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz The 2022 hurricane season in the Atlantic historically ends in a month. And the area most likely to see development this time of year is at it again. "Lisa" is forming in the Central Caribbean. The water is plenty warm, and that warmth extends to a
by Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz Julia did indeed make a direct hit on Nicaragua Sunday morning as a Category 1 hurricane, as expected. It has continued to move straight west, which would take it offshore into the Pacific. The computer models generally agree with the continued westward track, but slow down
by Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz What you need to know, currently. Desplácese hacia abajo para leer este boletín en español The latest on Julia (including changes since Friday night): 1. Still intensifying as it goes over water 2. Still moving quickly (17 mph; 27 km/h) STRAIGHT WEST 3. Still tracking
by Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz What you need to know, currently. Desplácese hacia abajo para leer este boletín en español The only development in the Atlantic tropics to watch is Tropical Storm Julia just off the coast of Columbia in the ultra-warm waters of the Caribbean. The cloud pattern around the
by Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz It has been 1 1/2 weeks since rain from Ian started moving into part of the U.S. Finally, we can say that the rain triggered by Ian has left the country. Look at the total rainfall across Florida and then in the mid-Atlantic states:
The weather, currently. While one tropical disturbance has become Tropical Depression #12, it poses no threat to land. However, the one approaching the Caribbean in the middle of the loop above (91L) does have potential. It is possible that both become tropical storms. The next two names will be Julia
The weather, currently. It may not be named Ian anymore, but it's clear that remnant moisture from the catastrophic hurricane is still causing trouble in the U.S. The National Hurricane Center no longer covers it, since it doesn't have "tropical characteristics" (such as warm core and thunderstorms near the
The weather, currently. Ian is no longer Ian, so the tropical outlook turns back to the Atlantic. In the meantime, rain and coastal flooding is still going on in parts of the mid-Atlantic states, at least partially due to the remnants of Ian. The map below shows storm total rainfall
by Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz Ian made a THIRD landfall Friday afternoon, a bit sooner and farther east than predicted over the past couple of days. And it also intensified back into a hurricane before the landfall in Georgetown, South Carolina. Landfall intensity was officially 85 mph, a lot lower than
by Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz As we mentioned over the past couple of days, conditions would become favorable enough for Ian to re-strengthen as it moved off the Florida coast and into the warm Atlantic waters. It barely weakened below hurricane strength over land, since it was so strong to begin
Special Update from Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz Ian has made its historic, catastrophic track across Florida. The devastation extends from Marco Island in far South Florida to near Sarasota-an area of about 100 miles wide! By comparison, the destruction with Charlie in 2004 (the same exact landfall intensity and location) was
by Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz Florida is a big state. But rain from Ian extends from Jacksonville to Key West. Ian is a big hurricane-much bigger than Charley in 2004. It was exactly the same intensity and made landfall in exactly the same place, but Ian will end up doing MUCH
Special Update from Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz Yes, indeed, it is a worst-case scenario. Not for the Tampa Bay area, but for the area from Port Charlotte to Ft. Myers to near Naples. A rapid intensification (RI) just before landfall. It intensified 40 mph in just 12 hours overnight, from a
Special update by Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz Doesn’t get much more serious than this.#Ian is now just shy of category 5 strength as it lurches toward Florida. pic.twitter.com/oHRgVi6By4 — Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) September 28, 2022 This is horrific. Historic. Catastrophic. A day — and night-and days to come
The weather, currently. In a post 24 hours ago, I emphasized that a sole focus on "Tampa. Tampa. Tampa." was not telling the whole story. We supposedly learned that lesson in 2004 as Category 4 Hurricane Charley was tracking right at Tampa. But, the Hurricane Warning extended southward past Ft.
Special update by Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz Latest headlines: 1. Track slightly farther east-Tampa area wouldn't get the absolute max storm surge (still will be bad) 2. But will get even more rain than with previous tracks! Combining an already high storm surge with these amounts of rain will lead to
The weather, currently. Tampa. Tampa. Tampa. It seems that's all I'm seeing and hearing about. But before we talk about Tampa, let me emphasize this: because of the size, strength, and track predictions, the ENTIRE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL GET SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. The worst area of flooding will be
There is a lot of agreement among computer models for Ian becoming a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) by Tuesday.
by Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz First things, first. Hurricane Fiona is about to make history in Nova Scotia and Labrador. Even though it will be tracking over cooler water before landfall, that won't cause the monstrous waves to diminish. They have been building on the east side of the track for
by Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz Yes, there are other systems to watch in the Atlantic Basin, but the two on this map are the only important ones at the moment. Fiona has been a powerful Category 4 major hurricane-easy to spot. The Caribbean disturbance is-what? Nothing? I'll call it a "mess"
by Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz This is what the peak of the 2022 hurricane season was expected to look like. There was a long lull in July and August, but the picture below shows a full FIVE systems that range from weak disturbances to major hurricane Fiona. Gaston is at the
While Fiona is still raking the Southeast Bahamas and threatens Bermuda and even Newfoundland in the next few days, a new sign of future trouble is brewing in the Atlantic. The red area near the bottom of the above map shows a 80% chance of development in the next 5
*Correction: Due to an editorial error, and incomplete version of this newsletter was sent earlier today. Below is the full report.* Catastrophic. Disastrous. Again. There have always been hurricanes-at least as far back as human history. And Puerto Rico has always been an occasional target. And the mountainous terrain of
The weather, currently. As expected, Fiona suddenly started intensifying Saturday night, and by Sunday was a hurricane. It was even intensifying while the core of Fiona was influenced by the land (and mountains) of Puerto Rico. That's always bad news, since it proves how favorable overall conditions have become. Once
by Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz After a nearly two-month lull, the tropics started becoming active early this month. But Danielle and Earl were basically "fish storms" (only harming the fish) and were never a threat to the Caribbean, Bahamas, Central America, or the U.S. Now, with "Fiona" developing (as of
by Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz There have been several concerning developments with Fiona over the weekend: 1. It's getting bigger (and "wetter"). 2. It's slowing down (as expected) 3. It's moving toward ultra-warm water 4. It's tracking a bit farther south, which is bad news for Puerto Rico and possibly Hispaniola
by Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz As Fiona goes through the Caribbean Friday, it was still rather disorganized. A couple of things were preventing significant intensification: 1) Big blob of convection (darkest colors) was not under the center of circulation due to too much wind shear. The shear map clearly showed a
by Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz After a nearly two-month lull, the tropics started becoming active early this month. But Danielle and Earl were basically "fish storms" (only harming the fish) and were never a threat to the Caribbean, Bahamas, Central America, or the U.S. Now, with "Fiona" developing (as of
It's peak Atlantic Hurricane Season. https://t.co/ED5HMORNJl pic.twitter.com/EMoj9Zbj2K — Mike Ventrice (@MJVentrice) September 10, 2022 The weather, currently. Yes, it's been incredibly quiet in the tropics this season. That has been especially true over the past week-the historical peak of hurricane season. But that's just fine!
The weather, currently. I saw something over the weekend that I never thought I'd see this year-the historical peak of hurricane season without a single system given even a 20% chance of development in the next 5 days! In a La Nina year! Not many would have taken the bet
by Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz Below is the latest La Nina evidence over the past week or so. The blue colors represent the La Nina-colder than "normal" ocean temperature from the coast of South America thousands of miles westward to the West Pacific. This was one of the main factors in
by Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz HURRICANE EARL: Sign of Problems to Come? While Earl was transitioning from a weak disturbance into a hurricane over the past few days, it has also moved VERY slowly. As the above map shows, it has moved straight north, averaging about 6mph over that period. I
The weather, currently. So, where were we when we left off just before the Labor Day weekend? Oh, yes, we were ending the first July 3-Aug 31 period since 1941 with NO tropical storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. Things have changed in just a few days. But they
Well, we finally have a named storm on the map. Where is it? In the best place possible-in the middle of nowhere. And the other two disturbances NHC is following are no threat to land. It's no surprise that the first TS in a while has formed unusually far north
by Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz Yes, tropical storm and hurricane forecasts have gotten a LOT better over the decades. When I worked at the National Hurricane Center in the 1970s, track error averaged about 400 miles in their 72-hour forecast. In 2020 it was around 50 miles! And a 120-hour (5-day)
The weather, currently. What kind of "peak" hurricane season map is this? Sure, there are a couple of tropical lows in the Atlantic east of the Caribbean. But where's the "Bermuda High"? That "H" of 1018 (millibars) near Bermuda is incredibly weak for this time of year. The strongest "H"
Currently in the Atlantic — August 30, 2022 The weather, currently. Where did the "Hurricane" nickname come from? Another early picture from the FIRST chase year in The Weather Channel history in 1985. A recent water vapor loop is above. Those bluish colors are unusually dry air. And that is where
