Currently in the Atlantic 9-15-22

by Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz

The first significant threat to land since early July!

After a nearly two-month lull, the tropics started becoming active early this month. But Danielle and Earl were basically "fish storms" (only harming the fish) and were never a threat to the Caribbean, Bahamas, Central America, or the U.S. Now, with "Fiona" developing (as of this writing), the first land threat includes the Leeward Islands (Virgin Islands to Dominica), Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti.

First, let's talk about potential intensification. Conditions have been quite unfavorable for even minimal development in the Atlantic so far this season, so they're not going to "about-face" immediately. That's why the intensity forecasts are for slow strengthening at most.

Agreement on little or no intensification-so far

If you're at all familiar with the above graphics, you'll know how rare it is to have very good model agreement out to 72 hours. Ocean temps are plenty warm enough, but other factors should limit intensification (in the short term)

Now, for the future track (see below). This is a combo of "Global and Hurricane Models" from the "Master of Maps", Levi Cowan and Tropical Tidbits (if you don't use this site every day for every kind of weather, you're not really a weather fanatic).

Straight west track, then ?????

These are just a few of the possible computer model tracks (operational, ensemble, consensus, etc.) that Tropical Tidbits can show. Here is his full list: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/data/nhc_model_list.txt

What you can do, currently.

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