Currently in the Atlantic - Oct. 1, 2022

by Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz

"Post-tropical" Ian - moisture spreads north

Ian made a THIRD landfall Friday afternoon, a bit sooner and farther east than predicted over the past couple of days. And it also intensified back into a hurricane before the landfall in Georgetown, South Carolina. Landfall intensity was officially 85 mph, a lot lower than the 150 mph at landfall in Southwest Florida. But there was still a lot of storm surge and rainfall flooding.

The faster movement will cut down total rain amounts somewhat in the Southeast U.S., but there still will be areas of serious flooding. The track takes it toward the mountainous areas of Virginia and even West Virginia before losing all tropical characteristics. But that doesn't mean the end of Ian. Look at what happens starting late Sunday:

Ian goes BACK OVER WATER next week!

Computer models are in pretty good agreement that Ian (or the remnants of Ian) start moving back to the east early next week and may even intensify as a non-tropical or subtropical storm. Look at the forecast model intensities:

Re-intensification after the weekend?

Most have the storm at either Tropical Storm strength, but a few even suggest becoming a hurricane again. Could that happen? Is the ocean warm enough out there to support that? Yup. That "marine heat wave" that helped strengthen Fiona and keep it strong is still out there. These are water temperatures compared to "normal":

Warm Gulf Stream much warmer than "normal"

As far as actual ocean temperatures, any color orange or red on the map shows warm enough water to support a hurricane.

Ocean temps - 26° or above is warm enough....

Of course, even if the storm re-develops (tropical, subtropical, or just a LOW on the map), it appears that it will stay well offshore. But it could still help keep parts of the mid-Atlantic states and even New England wet for a while. Here's the predicted weather map for TUESDAY.

Once we're done with the remnants of Ian, the 2022 hurricane season will not be over. Conditions could start becoming favorable again in October. The Caribbean is a major development area late in hurricane season:

October is still "peak" hurricane season

And the European ensembles show signs of development in the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic.

Signs of Caribbean development - map for Oct. 8

The Caribbean is not a good place for tropical development in October. Storms tend to track north. We'll keep a close watch.....

Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz     thehurricaneschwartz@gmail.com