Currently in the Atlantic - November 2nd, 2022

The weather, currently.

There are now two tropical storms as we start the final official month of the 2022 hurricane season: Lisa and Martin.

Martin is no direct threat to land. Actually, it will get closer to Greenland and Iceland than any other countries, which is obviously unusual. That is what makes Martin interesting, but not as important as Lisa. So, that's where we'll concentrate.

Lisa strengthens as it approaches Belize

Lisa is in the ultra-warm waters of the Caribbean. As we've shown before, the warm waters extend to a great depth, leading to the highest "ocean heat content" in the entire Atlantic Basin.

Relatively low wind shear around Lisa

The wind shear is still rather low, especially for November, and the nearby dry air seen yesterday is no longer nearby. The moisture now covers a large area around the storm.

Water vapor satellite shows moisture surrounding Lisa

Now, the only significant factor preventing Lisa from rapid intensification is how close it is (and will continue to be) to the northern coast of Honduras. The computer model intensity forecasts still vary a good bit, but a few clearly turn Lisa into a hurricane before a direct hit in Belize.

The National Hurricane Center is even more bullish on intensification than most of the computer models:

"These factors suggest a pretty notable chance of rapid intensification, and the SHIPS index shows basically a coin flip chance of a 25-kt wind speed increase within 24 hours. Additionally, the regional hurricane models HWRF and HMON show Lisa becoming a category 2 hurricane before landfall."

Lisa continues to move to the west, even a track slightly north of due west (more than 270 degrees) will not only allow Lisa to intensify more, but also leads to a chance of eventually emerging in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico (the Bay of Campeche). The NHC forecast is similar to the computer model trend:

Direct hit on Belize as a hurricane, then......

If Lisa emerges in the Bay of Campeche by Friday or Saturday, it will certainly get the attention of many living along the Gulf states of the U.S. But the Gulf of Mexico-even the southern Gulf-is MUCH less favorable for tropical development than the Caribbean. The ocean heat content is dramatically lower:

MUCH lower in Gulf than Caribbean

And look at the earlier wind shear map for the Gulf. Red means high shear, which is unfavorable for development. That shouldn't change much later in the week.

Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz – thehurricaneschwartz@gmail.com

What you need to know, currently.

As Atlantic hurricane season enters its final month, tropical storm Martin joins Lisa in the basin. The last time there were two, simultaneous hurricanes in November was in 2001.

Lisa, which is in the western Caribbean Sea, could hit Belize as the sixth hurricane of the 2022 season Wednesday night. Martin is also forecast to become a short-lived hurricane Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center. A third storm could develop by the weekend as well.

Martin formed from the same system that brought heavy rain and flooding to Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands last week. The storm’s formation was also triggered by unusually warm sea surface temperatures of 25-25.5 degrees C (77-78 degrees F), which are two degrees C (3.6 degrees F) above average.

Martin is expected to transition from a hurricane to a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds on Thursday. However, it’s not a threat to any land areas.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted two to six more hurricanes to form before the season officially ends on Nov. 30. The next named storm to form will be Nicole.

—Aarohi Sheth