Currently in the Atlantic - October 3rd, 2022

The weather, currently.

Next system heading into Caribbean

Ian is no longer Ian, so the tropical outlook turns back to the Atlantic. In the meantime, rain and coastal flooding is still going on in parts of the mid-Atlantic states, at least partially due to the remnants of Ian. The map below shows storm total rainfall from the Mt. Holly, NJ radar. The lavender color around Philly represents 4"+. That's a LOT of rain. But, look at the area offshore. There's a yellow area showing 8"+ and even a tiny area of orange that shows 10"+.

Very heavy rain in Phila. area - even heavier offshore

All that rain combined with persistent, gusty onshore winds has led to coastal flood warnings along the New Jersey and Delaware coasts. And, it's pretty significant flooding - possibly up to "major," according to the NWS.

Lewes, DE. Coastal flooding for DAYS!

One example, shown above, has Lewes, Delaware in at least moderate flood stage for FIVE straight high tides, with MAJOR flooding expected Tuesday.

Now, back to the tropical future. The disturbance in the Central Atlantic has been designated 91L. It's large, but disorganized, so it would take a while to develop. But many computer models show the system tracking into the still very warm waters of the Caribbean during the week.

GFS model by Sunday, Oct. 9

The ensembles of the GFS (American) model strongly suggest some development in the Caribbean by next weekend. The European and Canadian ensemble models show similar trends. (The next named storm will be "Julia".)

October is not a good month to see a tropical storm or hurricane in the Caribbean. Historically, there is a trend for late-season hurricanes there to curve north, or even northeastward, threatening the U.S. But, the overall weather pattern may help us this time. See that big area of blue over the U.S.? That's a large High-pressure area, which would help steer any storm into Central America. That's a week away, though. Timing is often critical with such patterns, so that HIGH can't move off the East Coast and allow a pathway for tropical movement.

Ben Noll shows the type of map we want to see. You may not want to see unseasonably cold air cover the Eastern U.S. in most cases, but it would surely help block the tropics from causing trouble for the U.S.

Big cool airmass could prevent tropical trouble

I'll be updating the potential "Julia" all week.....

Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz     thehurricaneschwartz@gmail.com

What you need to know, currently.

Hurricane Ian weakened Saturday as it made its way into the mid-Atlantic. According to Currently’s Chief Meteorologist, Megan Montero, the start of the work week will be “calm,” though Ian will continue to affect the weather as it continues to dissipate:

“First, Ian dissipated over land today and will bring wet weather to the Northeast on Sunday and Monday. Secondly, Ian is in directly bringing a lot of wet weather to the West. Ian kind of disrupted the flow of the atmosphere a little bit this weekend causing a front over the Rockies to remain stationary (they usually pass through very quickly. A front remaining stationary over here is kind of unusual) and bringing above average rainfall to areas like Colorado, Utah, Arizona and New Mexico.”

Though millions remain without power since Ian knocked out the country’s grid, Cuban utilities are starting to come back. Similarly, as Floridians assess the storm’s damage, there is still lingering flooding and closed roads. But, the focus has turned to rescue and recovery and as of Saturday, more than 1,000 people have been rescued from flooded areas along the state’s southwestern coast.

—Aarohi Sheth

What you can do, currently.

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