Currently in the Atlantic - October 4th, 2022

The weather, currently.

It may not be named Ian anymore, but it's clear that remnant moisture from the catastrophic hurricane is still causing trouble in the U.S. The National Hurricane Center no longer covers it, since it doesn't have "tropical characteristics" (such as warm core and thunderstorms near the center). Yet, it is STILL causing rainfall flooding and serious coastal flooding in the mid-Atlantic states.

Large areas of 3"+ rain

The above is the type of map you might expect when a tropical storm moves up the East Coast. Well, the tropical part of the storm may be gone, but the rain sure isn't. It rained Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday in most of the hard-hit areas, and it was predicted to continue into WEDNESDAY! So much for the drought conditions reported in September! The worst of the rain has been in the Philadelphia area and in New Jersey.

The base map (so you can see the towns)
Blue=6", Yellow=8", Orange=10", Red=12"+

So, parts of the New Jersey got 8", but offshore there was one area with 12 inches! And it's not finished. Days of onshore winds also led to significant coastal flooding, which occurred during multiple high tides. I'd hate to see what would have happened in that area if Ian had stayed intact and then became stalled (like the LOW pressure has done in the same area for days).

Back in the more tropical Atlantic, it's still plenty warm in the waters, especially in the Caribbean. First, look at the "Ocean Heat Content" graphic (hurricane potential is highest in reddish areas), and then the map of average October tropical storm development:

Parts of Caribbean are crucial in October

There is one fairly developed disturbance in the far Eastern Atlantic, but the above map suggests it poses no threat to land for now. But, the weaker system in the Central Atlantic is in a more troubling place. It has been labelled 91L (until it would become a tropical storm, which would be named "Julia").

As for the future of 91L, here are the computer model forecasts of track and intensity:

Some models show development - but not all

It looks like 91L will eventually move into the Caribbean, but that wouldn't happen for days. Our hope is that it either never develops or dies in Central or South America.

In the meantime, it would be nice if the rain would stop in New Jersey and surrounding states.....

Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz thehurricaneschwarwtz@gmail.com

What you need to know, currently.

Scientists have found that nearly a third of the metropolitan areas on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts are at risk of at least half of their hospitals enduring some flooding during a hurricane, according to a recent study published in GeoHealth.

There is 0.82 meters of sea level rise expected during this century due to climate change. This increases the odds of hospital flooding, for example, by 22%.

The areas with the greatest risk are located in hurricane-prone states – like Florida and Texas. Cities like New York and Boston, however, are still vulnerable, especially as they lack some of the infrastructure of their more prepared, southern neighbors.

As climate change continues, hurricanes will intensify and the risk of flooding will increase, limiting access to the basic needs that many have become accustomed to, like hospitals or medical supplies.

“Hurricanes are enormously disruptive to health care access,” Aaron Bernstein, an author of the study, told Inside Climate News. “And I think this paper underscores how we need to reconcile this reality with the realities of what health care delivery looks like in our country, which is highly fragmented based on networks of care and insurers.”

While changing the injustices embedded in the US’s current healthcare system is a long-term goal, it’s important to have a warning and evacuation system for both yourself and your community so that when a climate disaster strikes, no one is left behind.

—Aarohi Sheth

What you can do, currently.

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