Currently in the Atlantic — October 5th, 2022

The weather, currently.

Developing storm approaching Caribbean?

While one tropical disturbance has become Tropical Depression #12, it poses no threat to land. However, the one approaching the Caribbean in the middle of the loop above (91L) does have potential. It is possible that both become tropical storms. The next two names will be Julia and Karl.

Increasing chances for TWO tropical storms

One of the obvious concerns to many people is that 91L is in the same area Ian started. Ian then tracked a little north of west as it developed, which kept it away from South and Central America. It appears that 91L will track pretty much straight westward, at least for a few days. That would keep it close enough to South America to prevent intensification until it gets into the Central Caribbean. That would also increase the eventual landfall threat in Central America, as some of the computer models suggest:

Westward track-for a while....

If 91L moves a little north of due west, there is a good chance of intensification. Water temperatures are still very warm and wind shear will become much lower, plus it is a historically favored area of development and intensification in October. And now the intensity forecasts are clearly trending stronger:

Intensification likely with nearly all models

The implication is that the only way 91L does not intensify is if it stays close to or hits land first. The rest of this week will determine if it poses any eventual threat to the U.S.

Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz  thehurricaneschwartz@gmail.com

What you need to know, currently.

Fueled by climate change — Typhoon Noru became a super typhoon
Nearly a dozen dead, and hundreds of thousands were displaced in recent super typhoon Noru.

“Typhoon Noru made landfall in the northern region of the Philippines and then made its way to Vietnam, last week — causing extreme flooding and killing at least 12, according to local reporting.

Local Filipinos weren’t given much time to prepare. The storm quickly developed into a super typhoon — the equivalent of a category 5 hurricane — with sustaining winds of up to 143 miles per hour, once it hit land.

This is similar to what residents in Florida just experienced with Hurricane Ian. Rapidly intensifying typhoons and hurricanes are becoming more common because of climate change, according to meteorologists. Warmer waters and excess moisture in the air give even the smallest of storms the boost they need to become devastating.

Local resources quickly become finite in these instances of extreme weather. Nearly tens of thousands of people were stranded in one of the Philippine’s many temporary evacuation centers, unable to safely re-enter their homes and communities, thanks to Noru.”

Click here to read the full story.

What you can do, currently.

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