Currently in the Atlantic - September 13th, 2022

The weather, currently.

Small chances of development - next 5 days

I saw something over the weekend that I never thought I'd see this year-the historical peak of hurricane season without a single system given even a 20% chance of development in the next 5 days! In a La Nina year! Not many would have taken the bet of this happening back when seasonal forecasts were issued around June 1.

There are a couple of areas that have at least gotten to the 20% level this week, but it's still not very impressive for mid-September. And there's not much time left in the calendar for Eastern Atlantic development. Look at the difference in development areas from Sept. 11-20 in history compared to only a couple of weeks later - Oct. 1-10.

Lots of red dots on the right-close to Africa.
Big drop in Eastern Atlantic origin

It is common knowledge that many of the biggest, strongest, and catastrophic hurricanes have originated just off the African coast. They're called "Cabo Verde storms" (formerly "Cape Verde"). The odds of a Cabo Verde storm drastically drop between this week and just a couple of weeks from now, as October begins. That's nowhere near the end of hurricane season, though. You can see all those dots in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and the Southwest Atlantic.

Is anything changing from the very hostile development conditions since a couple of weeks ago? The hostile factors included (not in order):

  1. Lots of dry air
  2. Lots of wind shear
  3. Lots of African dust
  4. No "Bermuda High" to speak of
  5. North Atlantic Ocean "Heat wave" compared to main development region (MDR)

Some of the above seem to be trending to less hostile environments.

Not as much dry air (blue-ish colors)
North Atlantic Ocean "heat wave" continues, but...
Cooling North Atlantic, Warming Tropical Atlantic

One of the strangest "anomalies" about this hurricane season has been the exceptional warmth of much of the North Atlantic (compared to "normal"). But look how much cooling has occurred in the North Atlantic in the past week, while the MDR ocean temps have risen significantly. Overall, the ocean pattern may be evolving toward a more "normal" state. Let's see if that change (and others) affect the 2nd half of September and then October.

Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz thehurricaneschwartz@gmail.com

What you need to know, currently.

Wildfires are raging across the west coast from California to British Columbia, as summers continue to grow hotter and drier. According to the National Interagency Fire Center, 93 active and large wildland fires have scorched almost 728,000 acres, the majority of them in northwestern states.

There are 11 major wildfires burning across California, including the Mosquito and Fairview fires, amid record rainfall and extreme heat. The Mosquito Fire has consumed over 41,000 acres and is 10 percent contained, while the Fairview Fire has consumed over 28,000 acres and is 53 percent contained. The remnants of Tropical Storm Kay helped firefighters ease the flames and deep-seated heat with its moisture and scattered showers.

However, both fires have destroyed homes and choked the air with thick smoke and pollution. Wildfires in Canada and the United States also led to dangerous air quality levels in British Columbia. By Tuesday, the smoke is supposed to start clearing near the coast and then inland.

For information on wildfire safety, read our explainer here.

—Aarohi Sheth

What you can do, currently.

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