Currently in the Atlantic - September 14th, 2022

A Perfect Tweet from Mike Ventrice on Monday

The weather, currently.

Yes, it's been incredibly quiet in the tropics this season. That has been especially true over the past week-the historical peak of hurricane season.

But that's just fine! The Atlantic Basin (and everyone affected by it) has seen the most active SIX YEAR period on record. Averages (from NHC):

Year   Storms          Hurr.       Major          Damage    Ace*

2016          15               7                 4                 $17B       141

2017           17               10               6                 $295B    225

2018          15               8                 2                 $51B       133

2019    18        6        3    $12B        132

2020   30    14    7    $51          180

2021    21     7     4    $81       146

AVG.  19     9         4   $85B     160

That is an unbelievable stretch of activity-and catastrophe. Year after year. But it can't happen every year, even in a changing climate that increases the odds of a given hurricane. We have higher chances of hurricanes becoming major, with more flooding when they hit land, and more damage. That is due to increased storm surges, wind damage, and flooding from record rainfall. Even the least damaging of those six years caused more than 10 billion dollars damage, with an average of 85 billion!

*By the way, ACE stands for "Accumulated Cyclone Energy"-the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. Any season with an ACE above 125 is considered "above normal", with anything above 160 as "extremely active". As of September 10, this year's ACE was around 30.

Potential development in Central Atlantic

That is about to change-at least a little. The disturbance in the Central Atlantic is showing some signs of organization. It is also moving westward toward much warmer water, as you can see below:

Warmer water ahead.....

And now we're seeing some computer models indicating some sort of development near the Eastern Caribbean by Friday. The European model, for example, shows a fairly weak area of LOW pressure near Puerto Rico. (You will not see computer model specific maps beyond 5 days here. You may see what are known as "ensemble maps" at times, which will be explained when storms actually develop).

Euro. model for Friday morning. Lower pressures in blue

The next storm name would be Fiona......

Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz thehurricaneschwartz@gmail.com

What you need to know, currently.

Global warming could likely still trigger multiple climate ”tipping points,” even if countries meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, according to a new study in Science published Thursday.

The study revealed that even if we meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping global warming at 1.5°C is not enough to avoid the danger of climate change. According to the study, tipping points, if crossed, will lead to irreversible, self-perpetuating changes.

Tipping points include the die-off od low-latitude coral reeds, greenhouse gas emissions thawing permafrost, the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the shutdown of the ocean current which includes the Gulf Stream, to name a few.

—Aarohi Sheth

What you can do, currently.

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