The weather, currently.
Yes, it's been incredibly quiet in the tropics this season. That has been especially true over the past week-the historical peak of hurricane season.
But that's just fine! The Atlantic Basin (and everyone affected by it) has seen the most active SIX YEAR period on record. Averages (from NHC):
Year Storms Hurr. Major Damage Ace*
2016 15 7 4 $17B 141
2017 17 10 6 $295B 225
2018 15 8 2 $51B 133
2019 18 6 3 $12B 132
2020 30 14 7 $51 180
2021 21 7 4 $81 146
AVG. 19 9 4 $85B 160
That is an unbelievable stretch of activity-and catastrophe. Year after year. But it can't happen every year, even in a changing climate that increases the odds of a given hurricane. We have higher chances of hurricanes becoming major, with more flooding when they hit land, and more damage. That is due to increased storm surges, wind damage, and flooding from record rainfall. Even the least damaging of those six years caused more than 10 billion dollars damage, with an average of 85 billion!
*By the way, ACE stands for "Accumulated Cyclone Energy"-the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. Any season with an ACE above 125 is considered "above normal", with anything above 160 as "extremely active". As of September 10, this year's ACE was around 30.
That is about to change-at least a little. The disturbance in the Central Atlantic is showing some signs of organization. It is also moving westward toward much warmer water, as you can see below:
And now we're seeing some computer models indicating some sort of development near the Eastern Caribbean by Friday. The European model, for example, shows a fairly weak area of LOW pressure near Puerto Rico. (You will not see computer model specific maps beyond 5 days here. You may see what are known as "ensemble maps" at times, which will be explained when storms actually develop).
The next storm name would be Fiona......
— Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz email@example.com
What you need to know, currently.
Global warming could likely still trigger multiple climate ”tipping points,” even if countries meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, according to a new study in Science published Thursday.
The study revealed that even if we meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping global warming at 1.5°C is not enough to avoid the danger of climate change. According to the study, tipping points, if crossed, will lead to irreversible, self-perpetuating changes.
Tipping points include the die-off od low-latitude coral reeds, greenhouse gas emissions thawing permafrost, the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the shutdown of the ocean current which includes the Gulf Stream, to name a few.
What you can do, currently.
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